Since the problem was introduced, high-speed railway passenger flow forecast is vitally important to the organization of high-speed railway. However, several studies have focused on forecasting short-term high-speed railway passenger flow on the basis of the regularity and randomness of the passenger flow rate. A new DNA-PK pathway method is, therefore, very much needed. Fuzzy
temporal logic based passenger flow forecast model (FTLPFFM) is proposed in this paper. Quasi-periodic variation of high-speed railway passenger flow is sufficiently reflected and nonlinear fluctuation of high-speed railway passenger flow is processed using fuzzy logic relationship recognition techniques in the searching process. The proposed model has explicit physical meaning, which reflects variation of high-speed railway passenger flow and has sufficient comprehensibility and interpretability. The characteristics of short-term high-speed railway passenger flow are vitally important to forecast model which is used to improve predictive performance
of fuzzy k-nearest neighbor by comparing with other predictive methods in short-term high-speed railway passenger flow forecast. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, passenger flow characteristics of the high-speed railway and passenger flow variation in adjacent period are summarized. In Section 3, the change degree of passenger flow is divided into eight grades according to cognitive habit and passenger flow change rate is fuzzified. FTLPFFM is proposed in Section 4. In Section 5, the experiment result for the application of FTLPFFM is compared with ARIMA and KNN models when using three statistics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). And FTLPFFM appears to be more robust and universally fitting. The last section is the conclusion and future work. 2. Passenger Flow Feature Extraction In short-term passenger flow forecast, the characteristics of high-speed railway passenger flow are summarized based on time variable because passenger flow has strong correlation to time variable. The data of high-speed
railway passenger flow were collected Drug_discovery from Beijingnan Railway Station to Jinanxi Railway Station, which is passenger flow in per hour from 26 March to 4 April 2012 (see Figure 1) and daily passenger flow from 14 May to 31 July 2012 (see Figure 2). Figure 1 Daily variation of high-speed railway passenger flow. Figure 2 Weekly variation of high-speed railway passenger flow. Two characteristics of high-speed railway passenger flow are taken into account in FTLPFFM. The first significant characteristic is quasi-periodic which imposes a great impact on passenger flow forecast. The running time of high-speed train is between 6:00 and 24:00 and the passenger flow in morning peak and evening peak is more than other periods, which is revealed in Figure 1.